– the ledger –
A working ledger of Raven's verdicts.
A verdict means nothing without a record. These are real calls from the archive, held up against what followed. Click any card to see whether the reasoning held.
from the archives
Risk is clearly defined at $11.44, below swing support, and the position must be exited ahead of the June 15 earnings date to avoid a binary event.
Setup – Pullback · R:R 1.6 / 2.5 · Confidence medium
Trending long on the 50 and 200 with two consecutive EPS beats.
Setup – Pullback · R:R 2 / 3 · Confidence medium
Established uptrend intact across daily and weekly, with trend-long and trend-medium confirmed on both timeframes.
Setup – Pullback · R:R 1.7 / 2.2 · Confidence medium
Gapped +5.8% into a resistance confluence at R1 ($104.85) and swing resistance ($105.98); now +9.4% above the EMA50 with hourly RSI at 74. No structural anchor for a stop yet.
Setup – Pullback, pending · Watch $98–$102
Reports 2026-05-20. The earnings binary creates gap risk that no position-sizing rule can contain.
Setup – None · Re-evaluate after earnings
Structure broken across all three timeframes; price sits below both the EMA50 and EMA200.
Setup – None · Structure broken
Outcome: The WAIT call was directionally wrong about the near-term path (price didn’t pull back) but analytically sound — there was no responsible way to build a defined-risk setup at $105 after a 20-point, 4-day rip. Anyone who chased the breakout from report price is up ~+10% with no stop framework, which is a different game than swing trading. The call to wait for structure was correct; the structure just never came.
Outcome: The SKIP holds up for ARCT. A 3-day, 13% bounce off a washed-out low doesn’t rehabilitate the structural picture — ARCT is still well below the EMA50 and EMA200, and the MACD almost certainly hasn’t crossed zero yet.
OUTCOME: NVDA is on a several-day decline after the earnings call. Some stocks jump on earnings — occasionally sharply — but direction isn’t derivable from the chart ahead of the print, and statistically it can just as easily go against you. The setup was sound; the event was not ours to trade.
Outcome: trade ongoing
Thesis: CAT is strengthening into validation. Raven flagged 4 disqualifiers at the report time, and price action since entry has materially resolved them.
May 27: Same as before, now with conviction. Trim 1/3 shares at $918 (T1) — book the planned R. If price hits T2, trim another half and trail under each new daily swing low or under the 4H 21-EMA. Don’t move the stop higher than $885 yet — give the daily MACD time to finalize its cross without getting shaken on a normal pullback to the 8-EMA.
May 28: Don’t panic-sell a stalled trade that held entry. Hold the full position. T1 wasn’t hit, so the planned trim didn’t execute. Stop stays at Raven’s $844 — giving it room. Key levels to watch tomorrow: hold above $880 (today’s low + entry) keeps the setup live; a daily close below $876 (21-EMA) is the first real warning. Below $866 (4H Bollinger basis area / 4H EMA50 ~$880, swing support) and the pullback has extended too far — that’s where I’d consider cutting half. Otherwise, let it consolidate. Boring is fine after a thrust day. Check back in 1-2 sessions.
Outcome: (as of 5/28) Five is still open — day 5 of a 10–25 day window.
The call was right. The framework’s dual-gate approach caught the inflection cleanly; both conditions firing on the same session was a strong signal. The May 27 shakeout was noise — stop held, structure intact, and today’s $225.79 close puts T1 in sight. Watch for a clean daily close above $229.33 to book the first target.
Outcome: CODA spent a full week below the stop — May 15 through May 21 — before recovering. There was real structural weakness, and the volume signal (“-“) flagged in the report was prescient. Both T1 and T2 were rewarded.
Some verdicts age well. Some don’t. The reasoning, in either case, is on the page.
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